Your rankings tell you that only stud running backs or elite QB's should be taken in the top half of the first round. You may be mocked.
The decision goes against mainstream wisdom. Your rival drafting at No. I'll tell you a secret, though. This is your team you are drafting.
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Don't let a piece of paper tell you what to do. Definitely don't let your opponents tell you what to do. If Megatron is your man, you better take him at No. He certainly won't be there for you when the draft finally snakes back around at the end of Round 2. Doc Brown is back from the future, and he just handed you a sports almanac filled with stats from this upcoming NFL season. Your new draft resource tells you that Sam Bradford broke every major single-season passing record in Even is this were all true, drafting Bradford in the first round would still be stupid.
He may not even be drafted at all. You can hedge a little and take him just before your kicker and defense. This is an extreme example. The point is that even if you expect a player to outperform everyone's expectations, you should still draft him according to those expectations, or only slightly above. Consider the performance a player gives relative to his draft-day price to be your return on investment.
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If he plays above that price, you profit. If he plays below it, you lose. In Round 1, it is impossible to make a profit. Your best-case scenario is that the player you chose finishes as a top player and thus returns full value. Your worst-case scenario is that he suffers an injury or completely under performs and thus returns no value. Everyone is drafting elite talent early. Picking the year's best player will only create a small advantage, but picking a complete bust can kill your season.
Lesson: Draft safe, consistent players early.
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No major injury risks. No one-hit wonders. Just proven commodities. Aaron Rodgers may or may not finish as the best quarterback in It's highly unlikely he finishes outside of the top The inverse is also true. There is more opportunity for profit the later you draft. Any owner taking a late chance on Cam Newton last year knows this well. That risk came with the minimal downside of dropping a struggling Newton several weeks into the season for a hot free agent. Either way, it pays better than sticking with tried-and-true Matt Cassel. Lesson: Draft high-risk, high-reward players late.
Rookies, former stars returning from major injuries and any other questionable players with high upside are all advised. Past performances only tell us so much. Yes, they are helpful for finding trends. You certainly need to know about past performances to draft all of those previously recommended safe players early on. However, this is and that's what matters most. Last year's stats are meaningless if you can't understand them in context of what is happening this year.
The best fantasy research isn't done in fantasy magazines. It's found in newspapers—or at least websites of newspapers. Do newspapers even exist anymore? Fantasy players often forget the fake game they love so much is still based on real life. Your primary research should come in the form of reading current news. Forget fantasy analysts. I want to hear from people that actually understand the real game of football and not just stats.
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Identify smart football people and read their coverage of the NFL. Beat writers and NFL insiders give the best fantasy information without even trying to. Reports from this summer's training camp beat last November's game recaps every time. You don't draft offensive linemen, but they still block for your running backs and quarterbacks. Who is Tampa Bay's starting running back?
Will Matt Forte and Mike Wallace miss any time for money? How is Peyton Manning transitioning to Denver?
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These are the questions you should be pondering this offseason. No one can say for sure if Cam Newton or Jordy Nelson can repeat their numbers, so don't waste your time trying to do so yourself. You can probably skip this slide if you have no idea what rotisserie chicken has to do with fantasy baseball. Fantasy baseball and fantasy football both come from the same concept of translating real sports, players and results into a fake competition between fake GM's. That is where the similarities end.
If you still play in a rotisserie fantasy baseball league, this is probably pretty obvious. However, it's still true even if you play in a head-to-head fantasy baseball league. Fantasy baseball rewards statistical balance and totals. To be successful, you must be competitive in all or at least most of the set stat categories.
go When those stats are collected doesn't matter, as long as you have them at the end of the week head-to-head or the end of the year rotisserie. If Ryan Braun hits four home runs during a week, it doesn't matter if they come all in one game or if he hits one in four different games. And if Braun never steals a base while hitting for a low average, then those four home runs are much less valuable.
Yes, fantasy baseball does reward consistent performance from game to game.
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Yes, fantasy football does reward single-game breakouts and well-rounded players. However, a fantasy football player just needs to score points. Rushing 15 times for 60 yards is exactly the same as rushing one time for a one-yard touchdown. Fantasy football players are also more valuable if they consistently score game to game rather than all at once. Each week you tailor your roster to win that specific week.